Kenneth M. Johnson, PhD, highlights record low US fertility rates

In a recent interview with Contemporary OB/GYN, Kenneth M. Johnson, PhD, professor of sociology at the University of New Hampshire, discussed his study on fertility patterns in the United States, highlighting a historic decline in birth rates with wide-reaching implications for society.

According to Johnson, the US fertility rate is currently at its lowest level ever recorded, with a 22% drop since 2007, just before the Great Recession. In 2007, there were approximately 4.3 million births, compared with only 3.6 million last year, despite the fact that the population of women in their prime childbearing years has increased by approximately 12%. Johnson noted that, had pre-recession fertility patterns persisted, the nation would likely have seen around 1 million more births last year alone.

Much of the decline is concentrated among younger women, particularly those in their early twenties. For example, women aged 20 to 24 years had a fertility rate of approximately 100 births per 1,000 women 2 decades ago, compared with just 60 today. Teen birth rates have also declined, which is generally regarded as a positive development, while fertility among women in their 30s and 40s has held steady or risen slightly.

However, these increases are not enough to counterbalance the sharp declines among younger women. Currently, 52% of the 44.2 million women of prime childbearing age in the US have no children, a figure that translates to 5.7 million more childless women than would have been expected if pre-recession fertility trends had continued. Johnson pointed to delayed marriage and reduced marriage rates as key contributing factors.

Looking to the long term, Johnson raised the question of whether these missing births are merely delayed or permanently forgone. Initially, he believed the Great Recession had simply postponed family formation. However, women who were in their early 20s during that period are now entering their late 30s, and fertility rates have not significantly rebounded. This suggests that many of these births will never occur. Johnson estimated that, if pre-recession fertility trends had continued, the US would have roughly 11.8 million more children today.

The implications are far-reaching. In the short term, declining birth rates reduce demand for obstetric care, leading to maternity ward closures, particularly in rural areas. Over time, fewer children will translate into shrinking school enrollments, followed by decreased university admissions and, ultimately, a smaller labor force. This “demographic cliff” could reshape multiple sectors of society, from health care to education to the economy at large.

This video is part 1 of a 2-part series. Check back tomorrow for part 2.

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Reference

Study shows number of childless women in the US continues to rise. University of New Hampshire. September 15, 2025. Accessed September 30, 2025. https://www.unh.edu/unhtoday/news/release/2025/09/15/study-shows-number-childless-women-us-continues-rise.