How to use Bayes theorem to estimate sequential conditional risks.
July 06, 2011
Many clinicians and perhaps some statisticians are at odds regarding the correct application of Bayes theorem in integrated risk assessments of screening programs for Down syndrome1. Most standard textbooks show that the posterior odds = prior odds X likelihood ratio but some publications show the use of prior risk X likelihood ratio to calculate the posterior risk. Bayes theorem does refer to probabilities, which is equivalent to the word "risk"